Facebook: On the Way Out?

Discussion in 'Social Media for Business' started by ThirdSEO, Feb 23, 2012.

  1. ThirdSEO

    ThirdSEO
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    Most of us remember how popular Myspace was and how, for a few years, it remained
    the top site in terms of social networking. Now, Myspace has disappeared almost as
    fast as it rose to the top. Let's take a look at how Myspace has performed over its
    lifetime:

    Myspace
    [​IMG]

    Notice the shape of the graph. Myspace's life can be seen as a bell curve with a
    steep rise to the peak and a steady decline after a year or two at its highest point.
    At the beginning of 2012, Myspace was nothing but a memory laid to rest in the
    past, most likely because of the transition in popularity from Myspace to Facebook.

    Now let's take a look at the current trend graph for Facebook and see if we can come
    to a few conclusion based on the information we're given.

    Facebook
    [​IMG]

    Doesn't this graph have an amazing similarity to the first half of the Myspace graph
    presented earlier in this post. Notice how the line in the graph has become
    increasingly more flat? Facebook has reached its peak and the trend suggests
    that this is most likely the highest point that Facebook will ever get in terms
    of popularity. Looking ahead, if we take the information we see from
    Myspace's graph, you can predict the outcome of Facebook's graph for the
    near future.

    There's an important thing worth noting, though, year 2007 in particular. Notice
    that the rise of Facebook happens at the same time that Myspace begins to
    lose its popularity. This shows the obvious transition that we took from
    Myspace to Facebook. It looks as if our attention span for social networks
    only lasts for so long before we move on to the next big thing. So what's
    the next big thing? Let's take a look.

    Twitter
    [​IMG]

    For years Twitter and Facebook have seemingly played well with each other.
    Since 2009, both social media sites have seen an increasing trend in
    popularity. But take a look at which of the two has already started to flatten
    out. In 2011, Facebook didn't notice an increase in popularity. Now look at
    year 2011 for Twitter...it nearly doubled in popularity. Could this mean that
    we're going to see a large transition to Twitter in the near future?

    It's not certain, but it sure looks like Facebook is going to be losing its
    popularity within the next year or two. The real question is: To who?
    Google+ doesn't seem to be the likely candidate based on their trend
    graph, but something's telling me not to count Google+ out just yet.
    To be honest, I think it's going to be a combination of Twitter and
    Google+ that ultimately bring down the Facebook empire.

    Google+
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Fergal

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    The fact that one social networking site peaked and then dropped dramatically isn't necessarily an indicator that FaceBook will do the same? There were many search engines that followed a similar growth and decline curve, but then Google came and just kept betting and better, it seems that no one can beat Google now.
     
  3. patrick0001

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    According to the trend, the next wave could be pinterest, tumblr, linkedin, skillpages....
     
  4. Mark T

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    No one knows exactly. Like Google, who knows that Google will reign in the search market and continue to grow, becoming a large target for every business online? As far as social networks are concerned, we cannot say as well on how will these social media and networking sites will stay longer. Sometimes or most of the time, it depends on the user themselves - or US. We actually tend to create the trends that let this social networks live up to where they are. We are the reasons why they exist. We forgot MySpace and ended up on a gradual pitfall like friendster before, because we - the users - has seen more preference and convenient usage on other sites.
     
  5. Business Attorney

    Business Attorney
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    As I was reading the original post, my thoughts were exactly what Fergal said, except that I wouldn't say that no one can beat Google, just that there is nothing on the horizon to knock it off its throne. I'd say the same is true of Facebook right now.

    Any of those sites can certainly nibble away at the edges of Facebook's market, but none of those has the broad appeal of Facebook.

    Although I am not a rabid user of Facebook, I am on it at some point nearly every day. I have a fairly small network, but the range of people in my "friends" network range from my high school and college age children to my 80 year old aunt. It includes a personal friend who is in the U.S. Congress and home-town friends who rarely venture more than 50 miles from home. It includes professionals with advanced degrees and blue-collar workers with no post-secondary education. The appeal of Facebook is remarkably broad.

    The other sites are much more narrowly focused. My LinkedIn network is larger than my Facebook network but there is almost no overlap between the composition of the two groups, maybe 5% or less.

    I don't have any doubt that at some point another site can push Facebook aside, but I don't think it will be any of the sites named or any other site that has a significant presence today.
     
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  6. JPM

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    Realistically, we're probably not going to see another site like Facebook which 'dethrones' them. Mainly because Facebook really is about 'real' connections and friends, and not just online acquaintances as such.

    There will be new players; Additionally Google+ seems to be more about being an extension of search, Pinterest is a whole new type of social bookmarking and Linkedin really hasn't peaked.

    Rather than a new social network replacing the last it's more likely a different direction will be taken, however the one thing they do very well is adapt to the times and try and keep current (admittedly their decisions are not always initially popular).
     
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  7. Fergal

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    Thanks for clarifying that Business Attorney, I agree 100% with what you are saying. My bet is that there is someone working on a project in their garage / bedroom right now that will have a serious impact on Google in the future. That's something I love about the Internet, it changes so fast.
     
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  8. Bournemouth

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    Google+ is on the increase big time, I think a lot of people are fed up with Facebook
     
  9. Business Attorney

    Business Attorney
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    If there is anything on the horizon that poses a threat to the continued growth of Facebook, it is Google+. I think Google+ will have more sticking power, because of its tie-in to search, than some of Google's previous efforts like Buzz and Orkut.

    So far, though, from what I've seen, there is nothing so compelling about Google+ that will drive the massive user base of Facebook to abandon their established networks and jump wholeheartedly into Google+.
     
  10. JPM

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    What I find compelling about Google+ is the speed they are developing the platform. Each update makes it more relevant, user friendly (and business friendly).
     
  11. ThirdSEO

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    Thanks for all of the interest in my post guys! There's definitely some good information being thrown around in here.

    I'm pretty young (23) and I've noticed that a lot of the younger generations have already started to leave Facebook for Twitter.

    I really believe that Google+ is eventually going to take the top spot. Right now it seems like Google is focusing on getting large name brands and businesses to join Google+, once that happens the personal accounts will surely follow. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next year or two.

    I also think that Pinterest is original enough to have its own market and there's no doubt that Pinterest will be around for a while. Look how crazy their trend graph looks in terms of growth over the last year.

    [​IMG]

    I'm right there with you JPM, I feel like they're working out the bugs right now. Once they make the platform easier to use for users then Google+ is going to take off.
     
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    #11 ThirdSEO, Feb 23, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 23, 2012
  12. JPM

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    Yup, though I wouldn't say they are bugs as such. I think there's a lot of features coming that will set it apart.

    Hangout is my favourite at the moment.
     
  13. ThirdSEO

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    Haven't have much time to explore all of the features yet but from a small business standpoint the site looks like it has a lot of potential. In terms of creativity I think Google+ is already lightyears ahead of Facebook.
     
  14. JPM

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    Perhaps, but they definitely started from a higher base. Facebook really didn't have much to aim for.
     
  15. ThirdSEO

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    This just reminded me, I need to finish your press release! I'll get you another rough draft as soon as possible so you can take another look at it before we release it.
     
  16. Shahrier

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    To be honest with you, I don't even think Facebook is at it's very peak yet. I think that it is extremely close, but as the next few years come, I think that Facebook will still be on top.
     
  17. ThirdSEO

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    We're just going to have to see. Google is notorious for introducing new products and then dropping them in the beta phase, which might end up being the case for Google+. It Google does eventually decide to push Google+ I think Facebook will be in for some tough competition, especially if it's against Twitter and Google+
     
  18. Shahrier

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    Well Google+ does have better features, but many, many kids are on Facebook while Google+ is strictly for 18+.
     
  19. ThirdSEO

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    Facebook used to be for college students who had emails from a .edu domain. I'm glad Google+ has an age requirement because I think it'll create a better business environment. Hopefully it ends up as a LinkedIn on steroids with a couple nice user features on the site.
     
  20. Shahrier

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    I don't think that Google+ will have more daily users than Facebook unless they lift that age requirement.. although I don't see that happening. I believe that Facebook won't be taken over in a long while.
     

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